Firstly – thanks for the kind words. All humans are vane, so it‘s always great to hear someone appreciate one‘s writing :). Seriously – thank you.
As for the 2013–15 move, despite a similar path so far in bitcoin price and definitely a partial applicability of the above, I would say it is a very different situation, because of the ICOs you asked me to omit.
I just can‘t do that – the level of hype that crypto as a whole has reached this time around is much larger than 2013/14. Back then none (!) of my friends got involved. I stumbled on it by accident, but really it was mostly confined to actual techies (mostly, not entirely). This time everyone knows about crypto, everyone asked me about it and many people got in. That means this bubble was the big one for crypto in my view. I cannot say if there will ever be a new bubble that involves more institutional money (this one already did) that takes prices even higher, but it could happen. It is just as likely in my view though that the bursting of this current bubble becomes much more painful than 2014. What if prices fall as much as back then but then keep falling? It is entirely possible we see bitcoin prices below $1,000 again before enough people are shaken out. No idea when the bottom will be found.
As for what I thought in 2014 – my invested sum was too small to cause me much of a headache, so after bitcoin fell below $400 or so again, I simply forgot about it. That is what usually happens during a bottoming – people that aren‘t users but solely investors will become bored and turn elsewhere. So if I were to use myself as an indicator we may not be there yet. I am still interested… ;)