Look – it is never easy to call the top of a bubble and I am not attempting that. Just one side note to ponder:
The Nasdaq Composite is worth a total of c 9.5trn USD, which is roughly the same as in 2000 (I think). So let s say back then c 4trn USD was the size of the bubble (it traded c 50% below its peak after the bubble burst for a while).
My point is that real institutional money, which is probably about 90–95% of the total invested capital worldwide will only enter crypto after regulation is clear.
So you have to compare the c 400bn USD of crypto value not to the 4trn back then but to only 10% of it, simply because it is almost (I say almost!) exclusively private money fueling this bubble, so 90% is not eligible to invest. My point is the ICO bubble will burst when regulators (rightly) enforce regulation and people all head for the exit in selling their worthless token. This will have repercussions to bitcoin, ethereum etc. However, I also believe that after that wash out the real money will enter crypto and if you said “I believe BTC will trade at 100,000 USD in 3 years“ I would certainly not bet against you. Barring any changes to the token itself however, I would take that bet for any ICO any day… (that means if they do bot decide to give you equity after regulation takes hold).