Thanks for the interesting article. However, I am not sure this logic applies in the short to medium term. You say:
“After all, the argument goes, assimilating bitcoin into the mainstream investment world should boost its appeal and demand, making it more valuable. It is highly likely there will be an opposite effect.”
The examples you cite are a) the coming about of Nikkei Derivatives “in the mid 1980s” as well as b) the ABX index and other derivatives on mortgages before 2005. Let’s look at those two:
a) The Nikkei in the 1980s
Wherever you draw that “mid 1980s” line, the Index appreciated by another 300–400% till the bubble burst.
b) Mortgage Backed Securities after 2005
Note that I picked an index at random re US mortgages, but again the rally basically seems to have just gotten started at the point you mentioned.
In summary, while the parallels you cite certainly say that once the main stream becomes aware of an asset class, the bubble will likely be pricked down the line, if these two examples are any indication then the Bitcoin bubble is just about to really get inflated before there is an issue somewhere down the road.
So I am not saying you are wrong, I am more saying that implying the launch of futures spells doom for Bitcoin prices is at least questionable in the short term and the examples you use seem to imply the opposite.