Thanks Matt, that is very kind of you — glad you like my articles.
Regarding your questions (and obviously again this is only my opinion, so I can be totally wrong):
- Inflation I believe has been around 1.5% since then, so I get to something closer to 10trn worth of the value in 2000. However I think that we can just compare the actual sizes here, given if you got into this detail you might also have to consider wealth distribution over time etc. But it is certainly a valid point
- I actually think that the institutions you mention will stay out of crypto until a reliable regulatory framework is available. I am a fund manager myself and I can tell you that as of today, I am not aware of a custody method that would satisfy regulators. So I could currently not, in good conscience, launch a crypto fund. I know there are many others willing to take that risk, but I am not one of them. My guess is most institutions will act similarly (at least if we are talking about pensions etc). So for me, this is currently a retail investor bubble and it will burst as a retail investor bubble (as I think regulations might actually cause that; which means it will burst before the mainstream institutions enter). Of course, I can be wrong with that assumption as well. I do think that after this bubble bursts a new one will be inflated in a few years though.
- Regarding the UK, which is where I also live and work and Germany, which I basically visit every weekend, I personally have a different experience. Every Uber driver I trigger can talk at length about crypto, my ice hockey team mates are starting to ask me in droves about buying bitcoin and I have seen a lot of TV coverage in Germany at least (at least comparable to stocks in 1999; though I admit we do not generally invest into stocks much in Germany, so in the UK the hype with stocks was probably larger).
At the end I do not know when the bubble will burst-so I won’t try to call the tip. But with that experience from 1999/2000/2001, I can definitely say that we are in a bubble, not a iota of a doubt about it. It seems you went through the same time and if you have invested into stocks back then, then deep in your heart, hidden below all the crypto enthusiasm (that I share) you know it to be true as well. Let’s hope the ride lasts for quite a bit longer and let’s hope we (the two of us) survive the bubble bursting! Thanks for your engagement.